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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Monday 2016-09-12 · 22:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread -2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

LA
46.5%
SF
53.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (SF): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

LA 19
–
SF 21
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LA

Pharoh Cooper WR Out Shoulder
E.J. Gaines CB Out Thigh
Nelson Spruce WR Out Knee
Bryce Hager LB Questionable Concussion
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Foot

SF

Chris Davis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Anthony Davis T Questionable Not Injury Related
Arik Armstead DT Questionable Shoulder
Nick Bellore LB Questionable Knee
Quinton Dial DT Questionable Knee
Glenn Dorsey DT Questionable Knee
Keith Reaser CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 0
–
SF 28

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:30 TD SF (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 08:21 TD SF (8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 13
  • Q4 12:12 TD SF (12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught LA1 1-yrd. YAC. LA 0 – SF 20
  • Q4 05:18 TD SF (5:18) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (11:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SF 41, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 48 for 7 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 58%

    (14:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith to LA 36 for -2 yards (25-T.McDonald). Caught LA 36 0-yd. YAC.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 61%

    (11:36) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to SF 30 for 3 yards (64-M.Purcell). PENALTY on LA-30-T.Gurley, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (10:06) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 17-J.Kerley to LA 21 for 18 yards (21-C.Sensabaugh). Caught at LA 21; 0 YAC

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 26%

    (5:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to SF 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SF 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 37, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 39 for 2 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SF 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (13:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 41 for 8 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 8 yards (29-J.Tartt). PENALTY on LA-59-J.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SF 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 35 for 4 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:44) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at SF 38 for 28 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum scrambles right end to SF 19 for 5 yards (53-N.Bowman).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.