4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to SF 30 for 3 yards (64-M.Purcell). PENALTY on LA-30-T.Gurley, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.55 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model