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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 17-J.Kerley to LA 21 for 18 yards (21-C.Sensabaugh). Caught at LA 21; 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model