4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 85

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 41 for 8 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model