4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model