Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(9:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SF 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 35 for 4 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model