Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(7:44) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model