Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(11:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model