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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 24

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum scrambles right end to SF 19 for 5 yards (53-N.Bowman).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP