Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.30 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -2.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model