Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 95

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(6:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SF 41, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 48 for 7 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -4.10 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.26 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model