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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP