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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

MIN
58.3%
TEN
41.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Shaun Hill (MIN): +0.294 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIN

Nick Easton C Out Ankle
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Charles Johnson WR Questionable Quadricep
Jerick McKinnon RB Questionable Foot

TEN

Kendall Wright WR Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 25
–
TEN 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:50 FG TEN (4:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. MIN 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:47 TD TEN (:47) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 29-D.Murray for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – TEN 9
  • Q3 14:01 FG MIN (14:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – TEN 10
  • Q3 06:04 FG MIN (6:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 6 – TEN 10
  • Q3 01:38 TD MIN (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 83-H.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks [97-E.Griffen] at MIN 23. 54-E.Kendricks for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – TEN 10
  • Q4 11:22 FG MIN (11:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 15 – TEN 10
  • Q4 11:11 TD MIN (11:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 22, RECOVERED by MIN-99-D.Hunter at TEN 24. 99-D.Hunter for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 21 – TEN 10
  • Q4 02:41 FG MIN (2:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 25 – TEN 10
  • Q4 00:32 TD TEN (:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 29-D.Murray for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 25 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

    (10:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 37 for 14 yards (19-A.Thielen; 59-E.Lamur).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (4:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (12:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 38%

    (8:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to TEN 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 71%

    (14:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 27 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (6:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 22 for -2 yards. Lateral to 84-C.Patterson to MIN 31 for 9 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (11:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (8:21) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 26 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 20 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 64 yards to MIN 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 43 for 12 yards (47-A.Blake; 50-N.Palmer).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (2:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.