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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to TEN 27, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP