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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model