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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 27 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.52 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP