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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 22 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 26 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP