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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 37 for 14 yards (19-A.Thielen; 59-E.Lamur).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model