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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 74

New England Patriots 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 38 for 8 yards (38-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model