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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 20:30 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NE
43.4%
ARI
56.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.192 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NE

Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Cooper G Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Shoulder
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Hand
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Shoulder
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Elbow
Nate Solder T Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Kareem Martin LB Out Knee
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Foot
Lamar Louis LB Questionable Knee
Stepfan Taylor RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 23
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 TD NE (7:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 15-C.Hogan for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 01:05 FG NE (1:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – ARI 0
  • Q2 04:10 TD ARI (4:10) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – ARI 6
  • Q3 10:08 TD NE (10:08) (Shotgun) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – ARI 7
  • Q3 04:33 TD ARI (4:33) (No Huddle) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-21-M.Butler, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. NE 17 – ARI 13
  • Q4 12:40 FG NE (12:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – ARI 14
  • Q4 09:51 TD ARI (9:51) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – ARI 20
  • Q4 03:48 FG NE (3:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 23 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:59) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-86-K.Canaday. 80-D.Amendola to NE 26 for 8 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (6:18) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to NE 8, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 79%

    (1:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (12:30) 2-D.Butler punts 23 yards to NE 16, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 38 for 8 yards (38-B.Bolden).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:34) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to NE 21, Center-86-K.Canaday. 24-C.Jones to NE 31 for 10 yards (13-Ja.Brown).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:22) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to ARI 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:08) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 24-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 67%

    (12:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (3:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (:41) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.