Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New England Patriots 10

(1:34) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to NE 21, Center-86-K.Canaday. 24-C.Jones to NE 31 for 10 yards (13-Ja.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.62 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model