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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 77

New England Patriots 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to ARI 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model