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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 24-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model