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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 35

New England Patriots 17 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model