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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model