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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
57.6%
ATL
42.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Devante Bond LB Out Hamstring
Ryan Smith S Questionable Hand
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Back

ATL

Keanu Neal S Out Knee
Dashon Goldson S Questionable Hamstring
Terron Ward RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 31
–
ATL 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:57 FG TB (9:57) 19-R.Aguayo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 07:13 FG ATL (7:13) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 3 – ATL 3
  • Q1 00:16 TD ATL (:16) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – ATL 9
  • Q2 10:31 TD TB (10:31) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 82-B.Myers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – ATL 10
  • Q2 01:50 FG ATL (1:50) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 10 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:24 TD TB (:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – ATL 13
  • Q3 13:02 TD TB (13:02) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – ATL 13
  • Q3 05:21 TD TB (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – ATL 13
  • Q3 01:42 TD ATL (1:42) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 31 – ATL 19
  • Q4 04:59 FG ATL (4:59) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 31 – ATL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%

    (9:57) 19-R.Aguayo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (7:13) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:46) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 23, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 36 for 13 yards (53-A.Glanton).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 45%

    (7:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:08) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ATL 39, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (1:50) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 20 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 30%

    (8:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-50-J.Keyes, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 30%

    (3:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-J.Tamme to TB 40 for 10 yards (58-K.Alexander).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-53-A.Glanton, Illegal Use of Hands, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:02) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to ATL 31, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 9 yards (53-A.Glanton).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:59) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 30%

    (2:00) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Tamme (93-G.McCoy).