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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 19-R.Aguayo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model