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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-53-A.Glanton, Illegal Use of Hands, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP