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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP