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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 23, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 36 for 13 yards (53-A.Glanton).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model