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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 2

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-35-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP