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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BAL
41.4%
CLE
58.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BAL

Kenneth Dixon RB Out Knee
Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Ankle
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Thigh
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Calf
Jerraud Powers CB Questionable Ankle
John Urschel G Questionable Shoulder

CLE

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 25
–
CLE 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD CLE (9:51) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass deep left to 19-C.Coleman for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-T.Jernigan]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 06:58 TD CLE (6:58) 34-I.Crowell left guard for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CLE 13
  • Q1 04:40 TD CLE (4:40) (No Huddle) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 19-C.Coleman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-13-J.McCown was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. BAL 0 – CLE 20
  • Q2 01:19 TD BAL (1:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-M.Wallace for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 8 – CLE 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 12 – CLE 20
  • Q3 12:22 TD BAL (12:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 17-M.Wallace for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 18 – CLE 20
  • Q4 11:23 FG BAL (11:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 22 – CLE 20
  • Q4 02:57 FG BAL (2:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 25 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (6:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 78%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 29-J.Forsett left end to CLE 27 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis; 22-T.Williams). Pitch-out

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (10:40) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-35-D.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-T.Williams MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 10. 22-T.Williams to CLE 10 for no gain (39-M.Canady).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:20) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester ran ob at BAL 45 for 15 yards.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 72%

    (11:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (2:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 47%

    (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 19-C.Coleman pushed ob at BAL 30 for 11 yards (21-L.Webb).