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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 2 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-T.Williams MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 10. 22-T.Williams to CLE 10 for no gain (39-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model