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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 2

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model