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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester ran ob at BAL 45 for 15 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model