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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model