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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 25

What Actually Happened

(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 19-C.Coleman pushed ob at BAL 30 for 11 yards (21-L.Webb).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP