4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model