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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 2 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 29-J.Forsett left end to CLE 27 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis; 22-T.Williams). Pitch-out

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model