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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:46) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to GB 14 for 4 yards (23-D.Randall).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.99 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model