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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 20:30 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

GB
43.0%
MIN
57.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

GB

Josh Hawkins CB Out Hamstring
Chris Banjo S Doubtful Hamstring
Jayrone Elliott LB Doubtful Hamstring
Sam Shields CB Doubtful Concussion
Trevor Davis WR Questionable Shoulder

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Xavier Rhodes CB Out Knee
Matt Kalil T Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 14
–
MIN 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:44 TD GB (5:44) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 10:18 TD MIN (10:18) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:31 FG MIN (:31) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. GB 7 – MIN 10
  • Q3 02:16 TD MIN (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [76-M.Daniels]. Penalty on GB-23-D.Randall, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. GB 7 – MIN 16
  • Q4 12:50 TD GB (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-73-J.Tretter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 13 – MIN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:18) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 48 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:17) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to MIN 47, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-84-J.Abbrederis.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (8:57) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 3 yards to GB 46, Center-47-K.McDermott. 23-D.Randall pushed ob at GB 48 for 2 yards (48-Z.Line). Punt Partially Blocked by GB 88

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (12:46) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to GB 14 for 4 yards (23-D.Randall).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:41) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 35 yards to MIN 34, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to GB 24, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (4:48) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to MIN 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (:31) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 28%

    (10:40) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to GB 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (5:04) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks left guard to MIN 13 for 1 yard (98-L.Joseph; 96-B.Robison).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 19 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 35%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs.