4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 35 yards to MIN 34, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model