Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

(7:05) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to GB 24, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model