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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.30 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP