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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 3 yards to GB 46, Center-47-K.McDermott. 23-D.Randall pushed ob at GB 48 for 2 yards (48-Z.Line). Punt Partially Blocked by GB 88

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model