4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 15

Denver Broncos 13 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP