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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

IND
37.0%
DEN
63.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (DEN): -0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than IND
  • Trevor Siemian (DEN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Vontae Davis CB Out Ankle
T.J. Green S Out Knee
Patrick Robinson CB Out Concussion
Henry Anderson DT Out Knee
Trent Cole LB Doubtful Back
Kendall Langford DE Questionable Knee
Darius Butler CB Questionable Ankle
Antonio Cromartie CB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Kerr DT Questionable Foot
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Foot
Robert Mathis LB Questionable Foot

DEN

Bennie Fowler WR Out Elbow
Ty Sambrailo T Questionable Elbow
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hip
Derek Wolfe DE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
DEN 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 FG IND (8:21) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 05:33 FG DEN (5:33) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. IND 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:45 TD DEN (11:45) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – DEN 9
  • Q2 02:47 FG IND (2:47) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 6 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:09 FG DEN (:09) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. IND 6 – DEN 13
  • Q3 08:11 TD IND (8:11) 33-R.Turbin left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – DEN 13
  • Q3 01:13 FG DEN (1:13) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. IND 13 – DEN 16
  • Q4 14:06 TD DEN (14:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right intended for 15-P.Dorsett INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at IND 46. 21-A.Talib for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – DEN 22
  • Q4 04:09 TD IND (4:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 23-F.Gore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DEN 23
  • Q4 01:54 FG DEN (1:54) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. IND 20 – DEN 26
  • Q4 01:51 TD DEN (1:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 15 for -10 yards (58-V.Miller). FUMBLES (58-V.Miller) [58-V.Miller], RECOVERED by DEN-56-S.Ray at IND 15. 56-S.Ray for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – DEN 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 62%

    (11:47) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 75%

    (8:21) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:33) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to IND 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:02) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to DEN 19, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 31 for 12 yards (41-M.Farley).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 31 for 14 yards (53-E.Jackson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 67%

    (2:47) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 94%

    (1:13) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:40) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to DEN 16, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 21%

    (9:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (1:54) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 83-D.Allen to DEN 50 for 12 yards (34-W.Parks).