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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 53

Denver Broncos 23 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP