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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 17

Denver Broncos 23 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.06 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model