Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Denver Broncos 34

(:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 83-D.Allen to DEN 50 for 12 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.97 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -0.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model